Last month the Environmental Protection Agency and Army Corps of Engineers announced the signing of a new water rule which finalizes the Trump administrations process for revising the definition for the Waters of the U.S. According to the EPA, the final “Navigable Waters Protection Rule…protects the nation’s navigable waters from pollution and result in economic growth across the country.” The new rule, however, limits the number and types of waters that are protected by the Clean Water Act to just four categories: territorial seas and traditional navigable waters, perennial and intermittent tributaries, certain lakes, ponds, and water impoundments, and wetlands adjacent to these categories.
The new rule, therefore, eliminates existing protections for water coming from rainfall, groundwater, farm, roadside and other ditches, prior converted cropland, farm and stock watering ponds, and waste treatment systems which are hydrologically connected to navigable waters and could therefore spread pollutants on to such waters. The NWPR, leaves intact, state and tribal laws in managing water resources within their own jurisdictions some of which have broader definitions than the federal government for waters that come under such regulatory jurisdiction.
Alaska Native village communities located on the Seward Peninsula region (Villages) rely on healthy watersheds, fish and wildlife for their subsistence needs. At the same time rising temperatures and low snow pack in the region are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when it is most needed. For example, air temperatures in the region, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country, broke records during the month of July 2019.
These temperature increases are impacting the subsistence livelihoods of the Villages through decreased dissolved oxygen combined with other weather related changes, including low river flows, altered ice flows, and stream bank erosion. In addition, because rivers and streams located within the Western Alaska region are largely fed by snow melt, rising temperatures in the region means rain (instead of snow) is becoming more prominent in the fall and winter. This is resulting in increased seasonal flood events which threaten community infrastructure and scour stream beds used by fish and wildlife.
These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems during the summer months as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to just 7 in 2018. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water temperatures exceeded lethal limits for the fish. For example, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures as high as 16 degrees centigrad at the Vulcan Creek gage site, 30 miles from the mouth.
These climate related stressors are further exacerbated by non-climate stressors including mining and related development on fish and wildlife populations. Specifically, during 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management will be opening over 46 million acres in 1-3 million acres increments, to mining and other development throughout Alaska. As part of this process, the agency plans to open about 3 million acres covered by the Kobuk-Seward Resource Management Plan (Plan) of BLM Alaska land mineral entry and remove community-supported Areas of Critical Environmental Concern. The Plan, however, does not address the impacts of increasing water temperatures in watersheds affected by land releases and therefore, the combined impacts of climate change and mining development on subsistence resources.
The Native Village of Elim is applying for funding for it’s Tubutulik River Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Stream Flow Monitoring Plan Project is working to develop a climate change risk assessment for the Tubutulik River Watershed (Watershed) that will include: 1) Application of drought and temperature forecasting for the Seward Penninsula to predict instream flows and temperature; 2) Protocols for collection of instream flow, temperature and dissolved oxygen data during the summer season when temperatures are at their highest; 3) Identify lands within the Watershed that include critical fish habitat and potential locateable minerals that have been opened for mining under the Kobuk-Seward Peninsula Resource Management Plan (RMP); 4) Identify a process for applying the modeling and data collected to assist policy makers and land managers to mitigate land uses that potentially exacerbate climate related impacts in the Watershed and 5) Apply for instream flow water rights under Alaska state law on stream reaches in sensitive watersheds that have been open to mining activity.
Once the Assessment is completed, it will serve as an ecosystem-wide vulnerability assessment for natural resource(s) that can be used by multiple tribes as a template for conducting their own modeling, data collection and outreach to federal and state agency land managers. There are multiple sensitive salmon streams and rivers within the RMP planning area that other tribes rely on for subsistence practices that will be impacted by the opening of lands to mining under the RMP. The Assessment will, therefore, specifically benefit the other Village communities located on the Seward Peninsula by assisting in the prediction of instream flows and temperature impacts to salmon and other fisheries, and measures that will result in quantifiable, locally based watershed protection from the potential impacts of climate change and land development.
As part of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as a means of predicting the extent and impact of drought due to the effects of climate change, the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) is in the process of improving early warning of drought the Pacific Northwest Drought early warning System (PNW DEWS). The NIDISprogram was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to coordinate and integrate drought research, building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships in support of creating a national drought early warning information system.
A Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) utilizes new and existing partner networks to optimize the expertise of a wide range of federal, tribal, state, local and academic partners in order to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.
NIDIS’ goal is to improve the nation’s capacity to manage drought-related risks by providing the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Toward that end, NIDIS seeks to create a DEWS for the nation.
NIDIS’ approach to building the foundation of a national DEWS has been to develop regional DEWS, where networks of researchers, academics, resource managers, policymakers and other stakeholders share information and actions that help communities cope with drought. Learn more about NIDIS regional DEWS programs here.
About the PNW DEWS Strategic Action Plan:
On October 8, 2019 partners of the Pacific Northwest Drought Early Warning System (PNW DEWS) gathered in Portland, OR to reflect on current issues, past successes, and additional needs for the DEWS region and prioritized activities for the PNW DEWS to focus on in 2020-2022. This information will become part of the next iteration of the Regional Strategic action Plan for the PNW DEWS. The outcomes and activities are organized around the five components of drought early warning 1) Predictions and Forecasting, 2) Observations and Monitoring, 3) Communications and Outreach, 4) Planning and Preparedness, and 5) Interdisciplinary Research and Applications and are meant to address gaps and needs to strengthen drought early warning and preparedness in the PNW region.
According to NIDIS, “These priorities, outcomes and activities…would be a focus of the Pacific Northwest DEWS network over the next three years with the end goal of improving drought early warning and preparedness across the region.” Because the PNW DEWS concludes that “drought and its impacts are slow moving, multifaceted and complex,” stakeholders can combine efforts to take on this challenge using the following DEW strategies to predict stream flow and water supplies impacted by future droughts and high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest:
Improve predicting and forecasting around drought at the national and regional levels through EPIC, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, and seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) forecasting;
Better observations and monitoring going into, during and coming out of drought including a better understanding of the most relevant metrics temporally, spatially, and by sector for the region as well as improving drought impact reporting and analysis;
Improve communication and public outreach regarding drought information within and outside the region;
Provide drought information early enough to give communities (e.g., municipalities, farmers, ranchers, tribes), sufficient time to plan for and minimize economic damage to products and services;
Improve communication channels between academia, researchers and end users ensure and decision makers regarding early warning, planning and response.
Last summer the temperate rain forests communities of southern Alaska were shocked to find themselves experiencing a severe drought. It had been severe since last fall, a shocking turn of events for our beautiful affecting the forest canopy, salmon streams, water reservoirs, and hydropower plants in the form of winter rain, dwindling snow pack, spiking algal toxins, stranded birds, and salmon dying before they could spawn. Although the scale of drought was unprecedented, it was not the first time and it won’t be the last. Mike Brubaker, Editor of the Leo Network newsletter says that “there have been water shortages before in southern Alaska, and drought is becoming more common around the circumpolar north….As we reflect on our own water security, we may also consider the risks of relying too heavily upon past conventions when gauging the likelihood that events repeat in the future.”
Similarly, last October, the Leo Network featured a presentation by Celine van Breukelen, Senior Service Hydrologist with the National Weather Service which focused on how rising temperatures and low snow pack in Alaska, are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when both people and fish and wildlife need it most. The state’s air temperatures, for example, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country resulted in record breaking average air temperature in 2016 and the month of July 2019.
Also, in the summer and fall of 2019, while, the Southern part of the state experienced very active fire weather season. The Swan Lake fire on Kenai Peninsula which burned most of the summer for example, damaged the line that connects the Bradley Lake hydroelectric plant to the Raibelt cutting off it’s power supply for months. This forced Bradly to scale back operations and will likely raise consumers monthly bills 3% to 5 or increase this winter when people use more electricity.
Similarly, while water shortages for communities and rivers and streams drying up due to drought, the Central region of the state had so much rain that the Army Corps of Engineers had to implement Flood Control measures for the Moose Creek Dam, Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project near Fairbanks and the Army Corp of Engineers is planning to make modifications to the project in order to accommodate ever rising flood waters on the river.
Also, Alaska’s glaciers are disappearing at record levels and since 2002, 60 billion tons of Alaska glacier ice has melted, pouring waters into rising ocean waters. During the second half of September 2019, for example, due to above normal air temperatures resulting in increased glacier melt and the return of rain, the average flows of a little over 100 cubic feet per second (cfs), from the Bradly River into Bradly River dam, on Kachemak Bay located in Southcentral Alaska suddenly shot off the charts to over 500 cfs by the end of the month.
Alaska’s water year typically starts in the Fall when it’s time to start recording snowpack accumulation. The state’s snowpack, however, which has been reduced by 50% in the southern regions, compared to a decade ago, currently develops about a week later in the fall and melts almost two weeks earlier in the spring.
These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to 2018 in which there was just 7. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water exceeded lethal limits for the fish. One such river, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures at the Vulcan Creek gage site 30 miles from the mouth.
Murkowski along with the Trump administration, is an ardent supporter of developing, so-called, “critical minerals” including graphite designated in 2018 as essential to the U.S. economy and national security.
At the same time, subsistence resources upon which Alaska Natives, and who greatly assisted Murkowski’s re-election during her write-in campaign in 2010 when tea party candidate Joe Miller threatened to end her political career, be besting her in the Republican primary and, are often, severely impacted by mining and other development projects the senator is proposing.
So, during a packed community meeting at Brevig Mission, she explained that “While you need the resource, you have to avoid environmental degradation,” Graphite is a highly desired commodity that the world is interested in.
As a result, stating that “You are the ones who have the most knowledge on the ground right now,” Murkowski, encourged residents of both Brevig Mission and nearby Teller to continue to speak out about their concerns known as the project moves forward.
She offered similar remarks later in the day while addressing the residents of Teller, another Native village that lies 7 miles down the coast and is closer to the proposed mine site, where locals also brought up the project.
While Murkowski is traditionally a powerful advocate for development of oil and gas and timber, there are indications that she is weakening her stance on mining. Regarding the controversial Pebble mine for example, due to potentially significant impacts on the sockeye salmon population in nearby Bristol Bay, Murkowski has highlighted the need for a thorough assessment of environmental impacts of the Mine,
While she maintains that Graphite One is different because it would have a lot smaller footprint, Murkowski says “You can’t treat the people that live there as just people that get in the way of your project,” Murkowski said. “This is their land. And you have to gain that permission and that social license to operate. So Graphite One is going to have some work to do.”
In total, the Arctic research salmon program estimates that in 2019 roughly 2,000 salmon samples have been provided to them – almost triple the number from 19 years of monitoring harvesters and this number appears to be rising.
Similarly, Pink salmon have spread to parts of northern Europe after being released into rivers in Russia in the 1960s. Unprecedented numbers of the fish were found in Scottish rivers in 2017 and they were seen again in 2019 on the Dee which flows through Aberdeenshire, the Tweed which passes through the Borders, Kyle of Sutherland which is an estuary in the east Highlands and the River Ness which flows through Inverness and into Loch Ness when in September, a lone male was captured on one of our underwater surveillance cameras.”
Stating that by withdrawing safeguards for Bristol Bay in order to pave the way for development of the Pebble Mine, “the [Environmental Protection Agency] has handicapped its own scientists’ ability to protect a place” that the agency itself, has described, as having “unparalleled ecological value, boasting salmon diversity and productivity unrivaled anywhere in North America,” several groups representing Bristol Bay tribes and fishermen filed a lawsuit in federal district court in Anchorage in an effort to force the agency to restore the protections.
The Plaintiffs, including the United Tribes of Bristol Bay, Bristol Bay Native Association – a consortium of 31 tribes, the Bristol Bay Regional Seafood Development Association and Bristol Bay Reserve Association, two groups representing fishermen, and the Bristol Bay Economic Development Corp., a nonprofit promoting economic growth, have asked the federal district court in Anchorage to decide that the revocation of the 2014 determination made under the Clean Water Act, was arbitrary and capricious. The 40-page complaint states that, in withdrawing the 2014 proposed determination, EPA “failed to consider the substantive findings it made in support” of the determination that the Mine could cause significant harm to the environment.
According to Ralph Andersen who is the chief executive of BBNA, regarding the lawsuit, the Trump “administration not only broke the law, it made clear that local people have no voice in the management of our rivers, our streams and wetlands,… But the people of Bristol Bay are not pushovers.”
In the end of August myself, my wife Jessica and our neighbors were dropped off at the Jakolof Bay public boat dock by the water Taxi with our sea kayaks. We paddled to the head of the Bay where we beached the kayaks to walk a short way up the mouth of Jakolof Creek, to view several pools full of stranded Pink Salmon and some minnows probably Coho Smolts resulting from extremely dry conditions in the Kachemak Bay Watershed this summer. After leaving the mouth we walked along the road to the Red Mountain trail head until it connected with the Creek again about 2/3 of a mile up from the mouth were the Creek was bone dry for as far as the eye could see.
Unusually hot and dry weather this year as resulted in Jakolof Creek running completely dry starting in mid-July all the way up to the switchbacks and is still receding. Similarly, portions of nearby Kingfisher Creek are currently running dry.
As of this writing, all that remains of the creeks are intermittent pools of water containing stranded Coho smolt and some pinks, dogs, and Dolly Varden which are dying in these rapidly receding pools. Some small bears, eagles, and other birds are feeding on these fish but there are still many that are not getting used. According to Michael Ophiem, environmental program Director for the Seldovia Village Tribe: “We will certainly see the damage done in the upcoming years. This run of fish has been used for a resource for those who live in the area for many years. Some people who don’t have access to boats to get to other fishing sites are more heavily reliant on this run than others.”
This is the second time in 4 years that Jakolof Creek has dried up resulting in a mass die-off of all of the fish in the system at the time. Because streams within the Kachemak Bay Watershed are primarily fed by snow melt, they are extremely sensitive to winters with little snow and followed by hot dry summers which, like Jackolof can result in no water being available at critical times for fish and wildlife or too much water during winter months that can cause flooding or scouring of stream beds.
According to Micheal Brubaker, Editer of the Leo Network newsletter in regards to the Creek, “another year with a lost generation of salmon and other fish. The one difference this year is that the returns (at least so far) of pinks are smaller and the creek appears to have dried up two weeks earlier. This raises concerns not only about the future of this stream as a salmon spawning location but also about food security for the area….”
My wife Jessica and I spent a weekend last July in Hope, Alaska in order to get away from computers for a couple of days and enjoy one of our favorite escapes in one of the most picturesque places in the state. As we set up camp, we were alarmed by the number of birch trees with brown leaves. Weeks of drought due to a high pressure system that’s brought record-breaking heat has deflect storm systems farther north, preventing rainfall throughout the Kenai Peninsula and drying out the plant life. During a couple of hikes along the trails outside the campground it was evident that not only the trees had been affected. Fern, Devils club, fire weed and other plants were shriveled and dying.
While extreme drought is commonplace these days in the lower 48, the phenomenon has been all but unheard-of in Alaska…until this summer. For the second month in a row, at our house, we have been rationing water due to weeks without rain and increasingly diminishing re-charge of a shared well. The drought is similarly affecting Southcentral Alaskan communities that rely on snow pack and rain water for water.
According to a recent article in the Anchorage Daily News, entire forests in Southeast “are falling prey to spruce bark beetles and hemlock sawflys, which are taking advantage of a lack of rainfall and higher than average temperatures.” Similarly, while dry weather has also forced cuts in hydropower production in South central Alaska, an atmospheric river, consisting of a deluge of rain water from the tropical Pacific Ocean, has been drenching northern sections of Alaska and similarly disrupting hydropower and other infrastructure in that area.
In early July, I headed out with a research team from the Native Village of Elim to the Vulcan Creek gage site (30 miles up the Tubutulik River in Western Alaska) to install a new Level & Barrow Logger which collect stream depth and temperature continuously to re-place damaged equipment from a couple of years earlier. There was a pressing need to install the new equipment because we had heard reports just a few days previously of large salmon die-offs in the Shaktoolik and Unalakleet due to temperatures reported to be as high as 70 – 90°F and lower water levels, most likely resulting in low dissolved oxygen in shallow sections of rivers and the suffocation of fish.
As expected, while traveling to the stream flow measuring Gage Site the River, we observed hundreds of otherwise healthy (not spawned-out) dead fish including Pink and Chum salmon and white fish. When we got to the gage site we took temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) readings indicating the water was between 61– 64 degrees and DO as low as 8 milligrams per liter (a healthy stream should be 9 milligrams per liter or higher) When we returned to the gage site a few weeks later, we collected more data that showed temperature stayed high (around 58-60 degrees for the next several days before dropping down to a more normal 54 degrees.
Wes Jones, Development Director for Research with the Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation’s Fisheries says the scope of the “larger than normal salmon die-off last month covered several communities from east to west in the Norton Sound region” including Kotlik, Elim, Unalakleet, Shaktoolik, Golovin, Kotlik, Alakanuk and Akyak. Jones says that although salmon die-offs often occur naturally, “for this many to die so early in the spawning season could be a tipping point indicating a larger ecosystem shift in the Norton Sound region as a result of warming waters.”
Salmon streams in the Norton Sound region, however, were not the only ones affected by Alaska’s summer of 2019 heat wave. In early July, temperatures over 81 F were recorded in southcentral Alaska. This resulted, in salmon spawning stream temperatures exceeding 80 degrees for the first time ever. One such river – the Deshka produces more than 20% of the chinook escapements for the Susitna River watershed which drains the Alaskan Mountain Range.
Other rivers on the Kenai Peninsula similarly set temperature records in July. The Anchor River, for example, was recorded at 73 degrees. For spawning adult salmon or growing juvenile, temperatures above 80 degrees can be lethal, primarily due to the loss of oxygen in the water and the fact that warm water makes fish lethargic and, therefore, susceptible to predation. High temperatures and drought conditions combined with low snow pack this summer, caused the Jackoloff River on the other side of Kachemak Bay from my home to dry up completely for the second time in four yours, resulting in a die-off of Pink salmon returning to spawn and Silver smolts trapped in rapidly diminishing pools of water.
In short, it’s time to stop sugar coating it and accept the fact that Alaska’s freshwater ecosystems are collapsing – and it’s our carbon addicted society that’s causing it. According to Peter Westley, assistant professor of fisheries conservation and fisheries ecology at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the state’s fish die-off is “directly in line with the predictions of what scientists…have been warning is likely to occur, and we need to prepare ourselves and not be surprised when it happens again in the future, because it will.” Only problem, according to Sue Mauger, Science Director with Cook Inlete Keeper, is that “We’re 50 years ahead of where we thought they would be.”
We should realize that we probably cannot stop the freshwater habitat collapse from occurring but maybe we can slow it down. One strategy comes from Stephanie Quinn-Davison, Director ofthe Yukon River Inter-Tribal fish commission. who suggests initiating a network of locals from native village communities to monitor temperature, low flows, dissolved oxygen in nearby rivers to try and anticipate salmon die-offs before they occur. Similarly, calling it a “water emergency” for south central Alaska, the Leo Network is tracking impacts from the regional drought and request that Network members post observation to the website. Finally, Michael Ophiem with the Seldovia Village Tribe says that they have begun identifying habitat in the Jackaloff Creek watershed were water levels and temperature are currently adequate for salmon spawning and plan to purchase a wet incubator for out-planting eggs to those areas.
For our part, WPC will continue to assist with salmon die-off monitoring by collecting more data on water temperature, dissolved oxygen and flow levels for several villages in the Norton Sound Region this summer and next. Also, we would like to work with federal, state city and/or tribal governments, conservation organizations and other stakeholder located to develop rapid assessment capability and understanding watershed responses to extreme events including heavy precipitation and drought conditions. If you need assistance with stream monitoring or are interested in participating in the rapid assessment efforts please contact WPC at hal@waterpolicyconsulting.com or (907)491-1355.
