The National Climate Adaption Science Center (NCASC), under the US Geological Survey, has undertaken a nationwide assessment to better understand how droughts impact ecosystems and the people who depend on those ecosystems. Expanding beyond the traditional means of evaluating drought impacts based solely on detriments to agriculture, livestock and hydrology, this study explores drought which encompasses episodic water deficit impacts to whole ecosystems, along with the resulting human impacts.
During the assessment period, NCASC collected and synthesized data across the nation through regional workshops and produced ecological drought factsheets and an interactive map. Current data gaps were identified and an Ecological Drought Working Group was formed in a collaboration between NCASC and the Science for Nature and People Partnership (SNAPP) to assist in risk management going forward.
To learn more about this ongoing project,see: https://wim.usgs.gov/geonarrative/ecologicaldrought/
An ambitious effort to quantify climate-driven impacts on both glacially-fed coastal ecosystems and Alaska’s fire-prone boreal forest is under way. A new round of funding through the National Science Foundation’s Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) was awarded in October 2018 to collaborating faculty at UAF, UAA and UAS. The 5-year, $20-million-dollar project, entitled Fire and Ice: Navigating Variability in Boreal Wildfire Regimes and Subarctic Coastal Ecosystems, is now prepping for a second summer of field work.
In Kachemak Bay (south-central Alaska) and Lynn Canal (south-eastern Alaska) researchers are evaluating changes in ocean temperature and chemistry in both glacial and non-glacial coastal ecosystems. Stream monitoring, including temperature, sedimentation, and flow measurements began in the spring of 2019 and will continue throughout the granting period. Additionally, researchers are collecting isotope measurements to help identify the sources of water in a given stream (e.g., glacial, snow-melt, groundwater or rainfall). The data will contribute to a greater understanding of the freshwater input into Alaska’s estuarine systems and the effects of continued climate change on these highly-productive ecosystems.
Throughout Alaska’s extensive boreal forest, Fire and Ice researchers are investigating fire activity and associated climate-related impacts. Data will contribute to improved community risk-assessments through modeling to predict lightning probabilities, assess available fuels, and evaluate seasonal climate forecasting in order to better predict fire risks and severity.
Last month the Environmental Protection Agency and Army Corps of Engineers announced the signing of a new water rule which finalizes the Trump administrations process for revising the definition for the Waters of the U.S. According to the EPA, the final “Navigable Waters Protection Rule…protects the nation’s navigable waters from pollution and result in economic growth across the country.” The new rule, however, limits the number and types of waters that are protected by the Clean Water Act to just four categories: territorial seas and traditional navigable waters, perennial and intermittent tributaries, certain lakes, ponds, and water impoundments, and wetlands adjacent to these categories.
The new rule, therefore, eliminates existing protections for water coming from rainfall, groundwater, farm, roadside and other ditches, prior converted cropland, farm and stock watering ponds, and waste treatment systems which are hydrologically connected to navigable waters and could therefore spread pollutants on to such waters. The NWPR, leaves intact, state and tribal laws in managing water resources within their own jurisdictions some of which have broader definitions than the federal government for waters that come under such regulatory jurisdiction.
Alaska Native village communities located on the Seward Peninsula region (Villages) rely on healthy watersheds, fish and wildlife for their subsistence needs. At the same time rising temperatures and low snow pack in the region are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when it is most needed. For example, air temperatures in the region, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country, broke records during the month of July 2019.
These temperature increases are impacting the subsistence livelihoods of the Villages through decreased dissolved oxygen combined with other weather related changes, including low river flows, altered ice flows, and stream bank erosion. In addition, because rivers and streams located within the Western Alaska region are largely fed by snow melt, rising temperatures in the region means rain (instead of snow) is becoming more prominent in the fall and winter. This is resulting in increased seasonal flood events which threaten community infrastructure and scour stream beds used by fish and wildlife.
These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems during the summer months as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to just 7 in 2018. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water temperatures exceeded lethal limits for the fish. For example, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures as high as 16 degrees centigrad at the Vulcan Creek gage site, 30 miles from the mouth.
These climate related stressors are further exacerbated by non-climate stressors including mining and related development on fish and wildlife populations. Specifically, during 2020, the U.S. Bureau of Land Management will be opening over 46 million acres in 1-3 million acres increments, to mining and other development throughout Alaska. As part of this process, the agency plans to open about 3 million acres covered by the Kobuk-Seward Resource Management Plan (Plan) of BLM Alaska land mineral entry and remove community-supported Areas of Critical Environmental Concern. The Plan, however, does not address the impacts of increasing water temperatures in watersheds affected by land releases and therefore, the combined impacts of climate change and mining development on subsistence resources.
The Native Village of Elim is applying for funding for it’s Tubutulik River Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Stream Flow Monitoring Plan Project is working to develop a climate change risk assessment for the Tubutulik River Watershed (Watershed) that will include: 1) Application of drought and temperature forecasting for the Seward Penninsula to predict instream flows and temperature; 2) Protocols for collection of instream flow, temperature and dissolved oxygen data during the summer season when temperatures are at their highest; 3) Identify lands within the Watershed that include critical fish habitat and potential locateable minerals that have been opened for mining under the Kobuk-Seward Peninsula Resource Management Plan (RMP); 4) Identify a process for applying the modeling and data collected to assist policy makers and land managers to mitigate land uses that potentially exacerbate climate related impacts in the Watershed and 5) Apply for instream flow water rights under Alaska state law on stream reaches in sensitive watersheds that have been open to mining activity.
Once the Assessment is completed, it will serve as an ecosystem-wide vulnerability assessment for natural resource(s) that can be used by multiple tribes as a template for conducting their own modeling, data collection and outreach to federal and state agency land managers. There are multiple sensitive salmon streams and rivers within the RMP planning area that other tribes rely on for subsistence practices that will be impacted by the opening of lands to mining under the RMP. The Assessment will, therefore, specifically benefit the other Village communities located on the Seward Peninsula by assisting in the prediction of instream flows and temperature impacts to salmon and other fisheries, and measures that will result in quantifiable, locally based watershed protection from the potential impacts of climate change and land development.
A recent study conducted by scientists from the University of Washington, University of Utah, and University of Alaska Anchorage, concludes that a population of seals found in Lake Iliamna, Alaska’s largest lake, form a distinct, freshwater population. An analysis of the seals’ teeth indicates that the approximately 400 animals depend exclusively on freshwater fish found in the lake, rather than saltwater fish species consumed by other, marine-based, harbor seals. This finding brings the number of known freshwater seal populations around the globe to five.
This distinction has led the Center for Biological Diversity to petition the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to protect the Iliamna population under the Endangered Species Act. Threats to the population, according to the petition, include the proposed Pebble Mine, which would create the largest open-pit copper, gold and molybdenum mine in the state, along with associated infrastructure, including a ferry system across Lake Iliamna, and massive freshwater withdrawals. The proposed mine is located in southwestern Alaska’s Bristol Bay watershed, home to the world’s largest sockeye salmon runs.
Permafrost, which consists of frozen soil, acts like a pond liner, retaining snowmelt and rainfall at the surface. As permafrost thaws, pathways for drainage are created and ponds and lakes diminish in size or drain away all together. In a study by the National Park Service, aerial photos of Alaska’s arctic park lands between 1984 and 2018 indicate significant drainage following years with unusually warm temperatures. Moreover, the rate of lake loss appears to be accelerating. The loss of arctic lakes is impacting area wildlife, including millions of nesting waterfowl that depend on these habitats. The yellow-billed loon is of particular concern, as half of the world’s population of just 10,000 birds spends the summer in the Alaskan arctic, foraging for fish in deeper waters and nesting at the water’s edge.
For more information see: https://www.nps.gov/articles/lostarcticlakes.htm
As part of the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and as a means of predicting the extent and impact of drought due to the effects of climate change, the The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) is in the process of improving early warning of drought the Pacific Northwest Drought early warning System (PNW DEWS). The NIDISprogram was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109-430) with an interagency mandate to coordinate and integrate drought research, building upon existing federal, tribal, state, and local partnerships in support of creating a national drought early warning information system.
A Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) utilizes new and existing partner networks to optimize the expertise of a wide range of federal, tribal, state, local and academic partners in order to make climate and drought science readily available, easily understandable and usable for decision makers; and to improve the capacity of stakeholders to better monitor, forecast, plan for and cope with the impacts of drought.
NIDIS’ goal is to improve the nation’s capacity to manage drought-related risks by providing the best available information and tools to assess the potential impacts of drought, and to prepare for and mitigate the effects of drought. Toward that end, NIDIS seeks to create a DEWS for the nation.
NIDIS’ approach to building the foundation of a national DEWS has been to develop regional DEWS, where networks of researchers, academics, resource managers, policymakers and other stakeholders share information and actions that help communities cope with drought. Learn more about NIDIS regional DEWS programs here.
About the PNW DEWS Strategic Action Plan:
On October 8, 2019 partners of the Pacific Northwest Drought Early Warning System (PNW DEWS) gathered in Portland, OR to reflect on current issues, past successes, and additional needs for the DEWS region and prioritized activities for the PNW DEWS to focus on in 2020-2022. This information will become part of the next iteration of the Regional Strategic action Plan for the PNW DEWS. The outcomes and activities are organized around the five components of drought early warning 1) Predictions and Forecasting, 2) Observations and Monitoring, 3) Communications and Outreach, 4) Planning and Preparedness, and 5) Interdisciplinary Research and Applications and are meant to address gaps and needs to strengthen drought early warning and preparedness in the PNW region.
According to NIDIS, “These priorities, outcomes and activities…would be a focus of the Pacific Northwest DEWS network over the next three years with the end goal of improving drought early warning and preparedness across the region.” Because the PNW DEWS concludes that “drought and its impacts are slow moving, multifaceted and complex,” stakeholders can combine efforts to take on this challenge using the following DEW strategies to predict stream flow and water supplies impacted by future droughts and high temperatures in the Pacific Northwest:
Improve predicting and forecasting around drought at the national and regional levels through EPIC, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, and seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) forecasting;
Better observations and monitoring going into, during and coming out of drought including a better understanding of the most relevant metrics temporally, spatially, and by sector for the region as well as improving drought impact reporting and analysis;
Improve communication and public outreach regarding drought information within and outside the region;
Provide drought information early enough to give communities (e.g., municipalities, farmers, ranchers, tribes), sufficient time to plan for and minimize economic damage to products and services;
Improve communication channels between academia, researchers and end users ensure and decision makers regarding early warning, planning and response.
Last summer the temperate rain forests communities of southern Alaska were shocked to find themselves experiencing a severe drought. It had been severe since last fall, a shocking turn of events for our beautiful affecting the forest canopy, salmon streams, water reservoirs, and hydropower plants in the form of winter rain, dwindling snow pack, spiking algal toxins, stranded birds, and salmon dying before they could spawn. Although the scale of drought was unprecedented, it was not the first time and it won’t be the last. Mike Brubaker, Editor of the Leo Network newsletter says that “there have been water shortages before in southern Alaska, and drought is becoming more common around the circumpolar north….As we reflect on our own water security, we may also consider the risks of relying too heavily upon past conventions when gauging the likelihood that events repeat in the future.”
Similarly, last October, the Leo Network featured a presentation by Celine van Breukelen, Senior Service Hydrologist with the National Weather Service which focused on how rising temperatures and low snow pack in Alaska, are reeking havoc on the delivery of water when both people and fish and wildlife need it most. The state’s air temperatures, for example, which are rising twice as fast as other places in the country resulted in record breaking average air temperature in 2016 and the month of July 2019.
Also, in the summer and fall of 2019, while, the Southern part of the state experienced very active fire weather season. The Swan Lake fire on Kenai Peninsula which burned most of the summer for example, damaged the line that connects the Bradley Lake hydroelectric plant to the Raibelt cutting off it’s power supply for months. This forced Bradly to scale back operations and will likely raise consumers monthly bills 3% to 5 or increase this winter when people use more electricity.
Similarly, while water shortages for communities and rivers and streams drying up due to drought, the Central region of the state had so much rain that the Army Corps of Engineers had to implement Flood Control measures for the Moose Creek Dam, Chena River Lakes Flood Control Project near Fairbanks and the Army Corp of Engineers is planning to make modifications to the project in order to accommodate ever rising flood waters on the river.
Also, Alaska’s glaciers are disappearing at record levels and since 2002, 60 billion tons of Alaska glacier ice has melted, pouring waters into rising ocean waters. During the second half of September 2019, for example, due to above normal air temperatures resulting in increased glacier melt and the return of rain, the average flows of a little over 100 cubic feet per second (cfs), from the Bradly River into Bradly River dam, on Kachemak Bay located in Southcentral Alaska suddenly shot off the charts to over 500 cfs by the end of the month.
Alaska’s water year typically starts in the Fall when it’s time to start recording snowpack accumulation. The state’s snowpack, however, which has been reduced by 50% in the southern regions, compared to a decade ago, currently develops about a week later in the fall and melts almost two weeks earlier in the spring.
These sudden changes are impacting fresh water ecosystems as well. In 2019 about 22 rivers and streams throughout Alaska reported record water temperatures, as compared to 2018 in which there was just 7. As a result, in June and July 2019, thousands of salmon died as they migrated to spawning grounds in Western Alaska, because the water exceeded lethal limits for the fish. One such river, the Tubulik near Elim and Koyuk had record temperatures at the Vulcan Creek gage site 30 miles from the mouth.
Two front runners in the field of Democratic nominees for the U.S. presidential election appear to be unified on the controversial issue of the privatization of water systems including Elizabeth Warren who released an environmental plan that, among other things, calls for the nation’s water systems to be remain a public resource that should “be owned by and for the public.”
According to the plan “A Warren Administration will end decades of is investment and privatization of our nation’s water system — our government at every level should invest in safe, affordable drinking water for all of us.” The Warren plan includes the need for tighter federal classification of per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, the reinstatement of the Waters of the United States rule which was eliminated by the Trump administration in order relieve industry from water protection restrictions, and investment into public water system infrastructure.
Warren’s focus on water ethics puts her in line with democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, who advocates for similar protections for water resources in legislation he is sponsoring including the WATER Act which would help municipalities or state agencies bring treatment works back into public ownership and the Green New Deal, which would over haul the country’s approach to environmental issues. “According to Common Dreams. “Months earlier, in November 2018, Sanders gave a forceful rejection of privately controlled water after voters in Baltimore easily passed Question E, which bans the privatization of the municipal water and sewer systems.”
Research on private water systems, suggest that they “put public health at risk, a 66-page paper by University of Louisville law professor Craig Anthony Arnold argues, because the profit motive incentivizes companies to provide better services to customers who pay more and to maintain infrastructure with an eye to the length of the firm’s contract.” The Huffington Post.
While the Warren plan, does indicates that if Warren were to become the next president of the United States, privately-run water systems would become far less common, it does not provide whether or not, as president, she would take action to prevent their formation.
Every year, the national “Imagine a Day without Water” campaign raises awareness and educates Americans about the value of water in everyday life.
In October 2019, the campaign’s theme emphasized imagining “No water to drink, or even to make coffee with. No water to shower, flush the toilet, or do laundry…Some communities in America already know how impossible it is to try to go a day without our most precious resource: Water.” There are five villages in the Bering Sea region including Stebbins, Teller, Wales, Diomede and Shishmaref, that fit this description perfectly because most homes in these villages have never had running water.
Each of them have various strategies for compensating for the lack of running water. Shishmaref, for example, collects snow over the winter into a catchment and drains the melted water into a lined pond. The water is filtered and then pumped into a 1.3 million gallon tank. The water catchment needs a new liner and a transfer line but the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium — an Anchorage based entity that provides funding for municipal water and sewer, doesn’t have the money to upgrade it. Diomede needs $50,000 to make improvements to its water system and in the meantime, in order to obtain access to fresh water for drinking, the majority of people, use rainwater or ice water.
At a rate of a quarter per gallon, the Wale’s school and teachers’ housing which are supported by Bering Straits School District and the health clinic are the only facilities that can afford treated running water but the rest of the community goes without. For sewage disposal, the village stages bins in various locations throughout the community where people dump their honey buckets. The bins are collected and hauled out to a lagoon where they are dumped.
Due to a lack of infrastructure, Shishmaref, Diomede, and Wales are on the Environmental Protection Agency’s list of drinking water systems that are over the limits for what EPA has deemed to be safe for humans for arsenic, nitrates, uranium, and other contaminants. Even those Alaska villages with adequate water infrastructure still have occasional issues with access to running water. After someone ran into a power pole with a backhoe in Elim (located in the Norton Sound region) last spring, the municipal water pump blew a fuse due to the lack of electricity, and the entire village had no electricity or running water for almost a week while the city waited for a new pump.
So far, Bering Sea communities haven’t been able to get much assistance in establishing water infrastructure from the federal or state government.
While the Trump administration recently adopted a $1.5 trillion plan to rebuild the countries crumbling water infrastructure including in small communities, for example, the plan includes a mere $200 billion in federal funds while the remaining $1.3 trillion would come from sources that those communities would need to come up with. Because many small communities generally don’t have access to those kinds of funds they would need to turn to private investors to develop or rehabilitate water infrastructure giving those investors too much control over what has traditionally been a public resource.
Similarly, in order to cut spending or pave the way for oil and gas development in Alaska, so far, Governor Mike Dunleavy’s focus on Arctic communities is to veto legislation or cut existing programs designed to protect human health and welfare or that would have helped build resiliency to the ravages of climate change.
One of the only politicians who has paid any attention to the appalling lack of water infrastructure for Arctic communities, is Senator Lisa Murkowski who after a visit last summer to Teller, Brevig Mission and Wales stated “we know the costs here are so high it can literally take every dollar for water and wastewater projects.”
However, Senator Murkowski may also be missing an opportunity to incorporate adequate water infrastructure for Arctic village communities in her recently revealed plans to reintroduce the Shipping and Environmental Arctic Leadership Act (SEAL Act). The act is intended to shore up infrastructure that could take advantage of increased shipping and exploitation of resources in the Bering Sea area, but it does not include developing adequate water infrastructure for Arctic communities.
It seems that whenever, federal or state policy makers talk about the Arctic, these days, the emphasis is on taking advantage of a warming temperatures and melting sea ice to exploit rather than protect local communities or the environment.
n so doing, we are continuing to leave many such communities way behind.
Hal Shepherd is a consultant and writer on water policy issues living in Homer, Alaska.
